Retail Sales Data in Focus as USD/JPY Trades Near Key Support
USD/JPY Price Overview Today
The USD/JPY currency pair is under pressure on 10 February 2026, trading near the 155.08 level after failing to sustain higher prices earlier in the session. Today’s daily candle opened at 155.859, reached a high of 156.282, printed a low of 155.058, and is currently hovering close to the session low. This price action highlights increasing bearish momentum as traders position themselves ahead of important US retail sales data.
USD/JPY remains one of the most closely watched currency pairs due to its sensitivity to US macroeconomic data, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and Japanese yen safe-haven flows. With both Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales m/m expected to slow, today’s session could play a decisive role in determining the short-term trend direction.
Fundamental Analysis: Key Drivers Affecting USD/JPY Today
1. Core Retail Sales (m/m)
Previous: 0.5%
Forecast: 0.3%
Core Retail Sales exclude automobiles and are a critical indicator of underlying consumer demand in the US economy. The forecasted slowdown suggests that consumer spending momentum is easing, which may weigh on overall economic growth expectations.
For USD/JPY, weaker core retail sales are typically USD-negative, as they:
- Reduce confidence in economic expansion
- Lower expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve tightening
- Pressure US bond yields lower
2. Retail Sales m/m
Previous: 0.6%
Forecast: 0.4%
Retail Sales m/m measure total consumer spending and are one of the most influential US economic indicators. A decline from the previous reading signals that consumers may be becoming more cautious due to:
- Higher interest rates
- Persistent inflation pressures
- Slowing labor market conditions
A weaker-than-expected retail sales print could strengthen the Japanese yen and push USD/JPY further lower.
3. Federal Reserve Expectations and USD Outlook
Retail sales data directly influence Federal Reserve policy expectations. If today’s data confirms slowing consumption:
- Markets may price in earlier or deeper rate cuts
- US Treasury yields could decline
- The US dollar may weaken broadly
This environment is generally bearish for USD/JPY, especially when the pair is already trading near key technical supports.
4. Japanese Yen Fundamentals
While the Bank of Japan continues to maintain a relatively accommodative stance, the yen still benefits from:
- Safe-haven demand during USD weakness
- Periodic repatriation flows
- Technical mean-reversion after extended USD/JPY rallies
With USD/JPY already down from its intraday high, yen buyers appear more active today.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
From a technical perspective, USD/JPY is showing clear signs of short-term bearish pressure.
Daily Candle Structure
- Long upper wick near 156.28
- Price trading close to the daily low
- Indicates seller dominance and rejection from higher levels
This candle formation often suggests the possibility of continuation to the downside, especially if supported by weak fundamental data.
Key Support Levels
155.05 – 155.00 → Intraday low and psychological support
154.40 – 154.20 → Short-term structure support
153.50 → Major demand zone
A daily close below 155.00 could accelerate selling pressure toward lower support zones.
Key Resistance Levels
155.85 – 156.00 → Immediate resistance
156.28 → Session high
157.00 → Psychological and trend resistance
As long as price remains below 156.00, the bearish bias remains intact.
Intraday Market Structure and Momentum
On lower timeframes, USD/JPY is forming:
- Lower highs
- Weak bullish follow-through
- Increased selling near resistance zones
Momentum indicators suggest bearish continuation, unless a strong upside surprise appears in retail sales data.
How Retail Sales Data Can Impact USD/JPY Today
Bearish USD/JPY Scenario (High Probability)
USD/JPY may extend losses if:
- Core retail sales come in at or below 0.3%
- Retail sales m/m miss the 0.4% forecast
- US yields decline following the data
Potential downside targets:
- 154.40
- 154.00
- 153.50
Bullish USD/JPY Scenario
A rebound is possible if:
- Retail sales significantly beat forecasts
- USD strengthens broadly
- Risk sentiment improves
Potential upside targets:
- 155.85
- 156.28
- 157.00
However, given current price structure, bullish moves may face strong selling pressure.
Neutral Outcome
If data meets expectations:
- USD/JPY may remain range-bound
- Price could oscillate between 155.00 and 156.00
- False breakouts are likely
Session-Wise Outlook for USD/JPY
Asian Session
- Typically lower volatility
- Yen liquidity higher
- Support levels often respected
London Session
- Increased institutional activity
Stop-loss hunts possible near session highs/lows
New York Session
- Highest volatility
- Retail sales data likely to set the daily direction
- Correlation with Bonds and Risk Sentiment
USD/JPY maintains a strong correlation with:
- US Treasury yields
- Equity market performance
- Risk-on vs risk-off sentiment
Falling yields and cautious risk sentiment favor yen strength, reinforcing today’s bearish bias.
Trading Psychology and Risk Management
Given today’s data-driven environment:
- Avoid over-leveraging before the news
- Wait for confirmation after the data release
- Respect key technical levels
- Focus on reaction rather than prediction
USD/JPY Session-Wise Trading Plan – 10 February 2026
Retail Sales Data in Focus | Intraday & New York Session Strategy
USD/JPY Trading Plan Overview
USD/JPY is trading near 155.08, hovering close to the daily low (155.05) after rejecting the 156.28 intraday high. The pair is showing bearish intraday structure, and today’s high-impact US Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales data are expected to drive directional volatility, particularly during the New York session.
This session-wise trading plan outlines Asian, London, and New York strategies, focusing on key technical levels, fundamental bias, and risk-controlled execution.
Key USD/JPY Technical Levels Today
Intraday Support Zones
- 155.05 – 155.00 → Daily low & psychological support
- 154.40 – 154.20 → Short-term bearish target
- 153.50 → Major demand & swing support
Intraday Resistance Zones
- 155.85 – 156.00 → Immediate resistance
- 156.28 → Session high
- 157.00 → Major bullish invalidation level
Asian Session Trading Plan
(Low Volatility | Range Stabilization Phase)
Session Characteristics
- Lower volatility
- Yen liquidity higher
- Range-based price behavior
Expected Price Action
USD/JPY is likely to consolidate between 155.00 and 155.60, as markets await European and US participation.
Asian Session Strategy
- Bias: Neutral to mildly bearish
- Preferred Style: Range scalping
- Avoid aggressive positions; Asia is not ideal for breakout trades.
London Session Trading Plan
(Structure Development | Fake Breakout Risk)
Session Characteristics
- Increased volume
- Institutional positioning
- Stop-hunt potential
Expected Price Action
London may attempt liquidity grabs above 155.80 or below 155.00 before New York data.
London Session Strategy
Bias: Bearish below 156.00
Keep trades short-term and wait for New York confirmation.
New York Session Trading Plan
(High-Impact Data | Directional Move Expected)
Key US Events Today
Core Retail Sales m/m
- Previous: 0.5%
- Forecast: 0.3%
Retail Sales m/m
- Previous: 0.6%
- Forecast: 0.4%
Retail sales directly impact USD strength and Fed rate expectations, making this the most important session of the day.
Bearish USD/JPY Scenario (High Probability)
USD/JPY likely extends lower if:
Retail sales miss forecasts
- Core retail sales weaken further
- US yields decline
- Trade Execution
Bullish USD/JPY Scenario
USD/JPY may rebound if:
- Retail sales significantly beat expectations
- USD strengthens broadly
Neutral Data Outcome
If data meets forecasts:
- Expect consolidation
- Range likely between 155.00 – 156.00
- Scalping strategies preferred
Risk Management Rules
- Reduce lot size before data release
- Avoid trading first 5 minutes post-news
- Risk maximum 1–2% per trade
Use M15/H1 candle confirmation
Final Thoughts
USD/JPY enters 10 February 2026 in a technically vulnerable position, with price action suggesting growing bearish pressure. If US retail sales data confirms a slowdown in consumer spending, the pair may extend losses toward lower support zones. Traders should remain disciplined, manage risk carefully, and allow the market to confirm direction after the data release. USD/JPY is technically weak below 156.00, and today’s retail sales data could confirm further downside if consumer spending slows. The cleanest trades are expected during the New York session, while Asian and London sessions are better suited for range and liquidity-based setups.
